Sturnella Signals | Vol. 1 · Issue 024 · September 30, 2026

Editor's note: This is market commentary, not investment advice.

The economic data remain relatively resilient. August PCE inflation increased 0.3% month over month, below the 0.4% expected, while core PCE increased 0.2%. Second-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised higher to an annualized 2.2%, and private businesses added 90,000 jobs in September, ahead of expectations.

At the same time, borrowing costs remain elevated. The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.30%, while markets continue to weigh energy-driven inflation against further Federal Reserve tightening.

On September 28, Mesabi Metallics announced plans for a roughly $15 billion steel plant in Iowa, supplied with iron ore from its Minnesota operation. The facility is expected to initially produce approximately 7.5 million tons of steel annually, eventually scaling toward 10 million tons. The project is expected to create 1,750 permanent jobs and support up to 6,000 construction jobs, with first steel production targeted for 2030.

The headline is the steel plant. The opportunity underneath it is much larger.

Someone has to: build the electrical systems, install the machinery, automate the processes, weld and fabricate, machine components, inspect and test equipment, design and manage water systems, move raw material, maintain motors, pumps and conveyors, operate controls, secure industrial systems, and repair equipment when something stops working in the middle of the night. This continues as around that plant will be contractors, suppliers, equipment companies, logistics providers, engineering firms and small manufacturers doing thousands of things that will never appear in the headline. The supply chain is also notable.

It is another example of capital moving toward the physical infrastructure required to process domestic resources into usable industrial material, a theme that we are coming back to again and again.

Mining M&A remained active through the end of September, with transactions spanning lithium, copper and gold. But the largest signal came from the major-producer level.

Coming out of Beaver Creek and Gold Forum, the question is increasingly larger than individual financings. Does this gold cycle produce another wave of major consolidation?

Mining companies are dealing with higher project-development costs, increasingly complex jurisdictions and the need to replace reserves. Scale can help finance those requirements; but investors are also demanding capital discipline. Reuters noted this week that major mining companies continue to pursue scale through consolidation and partnerships as new mine development becomes increasingly expensive.

There were fewer explicit hiring announcements this week than capital announcements. But the workforce requirement behind the projects is becoming visible.

A project like the Iowa steel plant will require: electricians, welders, machinists, controls engineers, process engineers, millwrights, industrial cybersecurity specialists, maintenance technicians, water and environmental engineers, and logistics and supply-chain personnel.

Critical-minerals processing creates a similar requirement for metallurgists, plant operators, process engineers and specialized maintenance personnel. The labor signal often appears after the investment announcement.

On September 30, the United States and coalition partners formally concluded Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq, consistent with the transition outlined in the September 2024 U.S.-Iraq joint statement. The withdrawal from Erbil Air Base marks the end of the coalition military mission in Iraq launched against ISIS in 2014.

Iraqi security forces will now take primary responsibility for remaining security challenges, while the United States says it will continue providing targeted training, intelligence support and counterterrorism cooperation. The shift marks a transition from a coalition wartime mission toward a bilateral security relationship rather than the end of U.S.-Iraq security cooperation.

On September 28, the Department of War announced a directive instructing U.S. Cyber Command and supporting intelligence organizations to prioritize foreign threats targeting the 2026 U.S. election process. The department said the effort will focus on identifying, disrupting and countering foreign cyber activity while coordinating with federal, state and local partners. For cybersecurity teams, the broader signal is the continued expansion of cyber defense priorities beyond traditional military systems and into nationally critical civilian infrastructure and processes.

The CISA and FBI guidance on third-party industrial-control-system integrators remains one of the more useful OT security developments from the past several weeks. Third-party integrators may design systems, install equipment, analyze operational data, support devices and maintain remote access into physical environments.

The underlying issue is straightforward: a vendor with remote access becomes part of the security boundary. For mining, energy, manufacturing and agriculture, that matters.

CISA released another seven Industrial Control Systems advisories on September 29. The advisories cover:

The important point is not simply that seven more advisories were published. It is the diversity of connected equipment appearing around industrial environments: gateways, routers, cameras, communications equipment and other devices that can sit inside or adjacent to an operational network.

The next signal will come from earnings. Q3 2026 covers July through September, with the main earnings window beginning in October and continuing through November.

For Sturnella, the important information will not only be EPS. I will be watching what management teams say about: capital expenditure, project delays, industrial demand, hiring, supply-chain constraints, energy costs, commodity prices, M&A, and cybersecurity and operational disruption.

Industrials, energy, transportation, mining and agriculture should provide a better view into whether the investment announcements we have been following are beginning to translate into orders, spending and operating activity.